The Federal Aviation Administration or The FAA has released its forecast for the next 20 years which focuses on the aviation world between 2019 and 2039. As stated in their forecast, the market for commercial drones is growing faster than anticipated and the number may even triple between 2019 and 2023 while the market for drones that are used for hobbies is slowing.
Their report covers a view of the aviation field in a broader sense, and they included the domestic US and international airline markets, space traffic, cargo air traffic, and drones. It is also stated that aircraft systems that are unmanned "have been experiencing healthy growth in the United States and around the world in the last five years" and they noted that the growth caused problems because it encompasses everything from professional rigs that are sharing the same airspace with larger counterparts and amateur pilots.
When it comes to drones that are used for hobbies, The FAA says that as of December 31, there were more than 900,000 owners who have registered with them and since there were mandated online registration for drones in 2015, they are estimating that there are at least around 1.25 million drones that are in operation. They also predict that in the next five years, the overall market for model drones will slow down as the prizes for it stabilizes.
Their report also studied the trends to what is described as non-model drones or those that are used for commercial purposes and of which they must be registered. For this category, the monthly registration is 15,000 which is almost 3 times higher than the number of non-model aircraft owners who registered their craft during the same time last year. The FAA says that at the end of 2018, more than 27,000 commercial drones have been registered.
The market for model drones may be slowing, but the market for commercial ones is accelerating and the FAA states that the growth will continue in the next few years. The registration rate for commercial drones will top 44 percent over the figures from last year and they expect that by 2023, the market for the commercial drone will triple in size. They estimated that around 823,000 drones will be flying by mid-2019 or early 2020.
Companies like Google, Walmart, Amazon, and even 7-Eleven are thinking about using drones for their deliveries and they can contribute to the rise in commercial drones' registration. Medical services are also employing drones, it was recently reported that Baltimore Hospital used a drone to deliver an organ to a patient. As drones become safer and more efficient operationally, the battery life will expand and there will be new business models that will begin to develop such as those that will be used for medical purposes, for search and rescue and delivery.
