Two Chinese scientists have concluded in their study that the Arctic warming has the high possibility of increasing the extreme cold events in Eurasia. They arrived at this conclusion by studying the impact of the Ural blocking on extreme cold events in Eurasia.
Scientists Yao Yao and Luo Dehai's study titled "Increased Quasi Stationarity and Persistence of Winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian Extreme Cold Events in Response to Arctic Warming. Part I: Insights from Observational Analyses," shows the intensity of the UB-related Eurasian cold anomalies' persistence strongly depends on the vertical shear and strength of the mean background westerly wind. This is used over the mid-high latitude Eurasia-related to Barents and Kara Seas warning, the largest one since 200 that resulted to a weaker meridional temperature gradient.
The effect of the Barents and Kara Seas increased the quasi-stationarity and persistence of the Ural blocking rather than its amplitude. Therefore, it leads the Arctic warming to more widespread Eurasian cold events that further enhances the Barents and Kara Seas warning.
Luo and his other coauthors also surveyed the physical mechanism behind the observational result by using an UNMI model. "The cooling over Central Asia occurs mainly during 2000-2015 and is related to the quasi-stationary and persistent UB," Luo said. He added that the Arctic warming hiatus, particularly in Northern Hemisphere, observed in the recent decade would be likely associated with the quasi-stationary and persistent UB linked to the background sea ice loss over the Barents and Kara Seas.
"The Northern Hemisphere winter warming hiatus observed in the recent decade (2000-2015) is likely associated with the quasi-stationary and persistent UB linked to the background Arctic warming or sea ice loss over the BKS," he said. He added that the cord extremes are more persistent compared to the Central Asia for the weak mean background westerly wind and vertical shear winters than the strong ones.