Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, made dire predictions in an interview on Monday. He said that the virus would continue to spread until two-thirds of the world's population has been infected.
He warned that a second wave in the fall could be more deadly than the first wave, and people should confront the fact that it is not going away easily. The whole world needs to live with the reality that the virus will be around for a long time, and with the vaccine likely more than a year away, it will spread until halted when the world achieves herd immunity or about 60% to 70% of the population is infected.
Coronavirus: When Will it Slow Down?
According to Osterholm, coronavirus is going to keep on spreading until it affects everybody it possibly can, and it surely will not slow down until 60% to 70% of the world's population is infected. Herd immunity will only be achieved when enough population has immunity to cut off the ability of the virus to infect new carriers.
Post-infection immunity to COVID-19 is still not well understood, but people who recover from previous related viruses such as SARS and MERS are typically immune for many years.
Furthermore, Osterholm said that even if cases start to decline over the summer, which could mean that the virus is seasonal, just like influenza, the cases could surge again in the fall. "As much pain, suffering, death, and economic disruption we've had, there's been 5 to 20 percent of the people infected. That's a long way to get to 60 to 70 percent," said Osterholm.
Coronavirus causes mild symptoms in many people, but may also cause complications or death to the elderly or those with underlying conditions. It may also infect people, but they may not show any symptoms at all, which makes it harder to detect.
Osterholm's predictions came after debates on how to attempt reopening economies while balancing the threat of the virus against the economic devastation caused by the lockdowns.
Since the outbreak started, at least 30 million Americans have been put out of work, skyrocketing the rate of unemployment, the highest since the Great Depression. Meanwhile, the pandemic has already infected nearly 1.4 million people in the U.S. and killed more than 82,000 individuals.
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US Cannot Lockdown for 18 months
While Osterholm predicts that the virus will stay for a longer time than once anticipated, he also acknowledges that the United States cannot be on lockdown for another 18 months. He said that political and business leaders need to find a way to resume activities while adapting to the presence of the coronavirus.
His warnings echo White House infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci's latest prediction on the second wave of the virus, which he describes as inevitable.
Osterholm is the co-author of the recent paper that predicts the pandemic will continue to spread in the next two years, which was previously reported by the Science Times.
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