A new study suggests that the quality of coffee could possibly decline due to the massive shifts in the climate. The research specified that the large coffee producers, including Vietnam, Colombia, Brazil, and Indonesia, are under the threat of the growing problem.
The research analyzed concerning data that was harnessed from global climate models and the soil compositions in many countries. Along with the major factors, slope and pH levels were also studied to assess the state of coffee and other crop production in the selected regions. The study was made through the efforts of scholars from Switzerland's University of Zurich.
Production of Coffee and Other Crops Will Change by 2050
Farmers Eduardo de Jose Protazio (L), 26, and Joao Paulo Rodrigo (R), 33, winnow coffee beans on their family farm in Forquilha do Rio, municipality of Dores do Rio Preto, Espirito Santo, Brazil, on November 23, 2017. At an altitude of 1,180 meters on the flanks of the Caparao mountains, between the Brazilian states of Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, farmers are planting Arabica coffee, a specialty that has better quality and price than ordinary coffee. Their beans are sold to the best specialty shops in Brazil and two-thirds of their production is exported to the United States, France, Australia, South Korea, Japan and other countries.
Based on the study, coffee was theorized to drop production by half in 2050 in Colombia and Brazil if climate change would not stop surging in the following years. Both countries are considered the top exporters of coffee around the world. Unfortunately, the resulting data could be the same even if the climate scenario stays at moderate levels.
The 2050 prediction also included several changes in some regions that do not normally grow coffee. According to the authors, the rise of temperature could open a new coffee plantation opportunity in southern parts of the United States.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that if the global temperatures increase from 1.2 to 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the planet will witness significant changes in many aspects of the environment and biodiversity. Changing the negative projection is still possible if rates of industrial emissions will lessen as soon as possible. The agreement convinces all participating countries to form mitigation efforts on their own territories for the betterment of climate in the future.
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Adapting to Global Warming Solution to Maintain Crop Industry
The authors said that solutions to global warming could include breeding efforts of essential agricultural products that can adapt to temperatures higher than expected. In the case of coffee production, the authors mentioned that arabica could be replaced with robusta strains in some parts of the world.
Zurich University of Applied Sciences Institute of Natural Resource Sciences expert Roman Gruter authored the study along with his colleagues. The team focused on specific crops alongside coffee, including avocado and cashews, in their investigation. The tropical plants were selected as their demands are the highest in the crop market.
According to DailyMail, the initial research has already been conducted regarding the same crop types, but information regarding soil and other environmental characteristics was not included in their analysis on growth impact. The comprehensive examination of the crops in the new study revealed that, by 2050, all three products might disappear or be adapted in certain regions for the projection of soil factors and increased warming.
Coffee is the most vulnerable crop under climate change. Today, many countries reported losses from their local businesses following the destructive inflictions of abnormal climate. Because of the scarcity and high price, the authors theorize that coffee may become a luxury drink in the future rather than a standard morning beverage in every household. Places outside the growing regions may also become suitable for coffee plantations, including South America and East Africa.
The same effects may manifest in the cashews of top-producing countries like Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, and India. Avocados originating from Peru, Dominican Republic, and Indonesia may also decline.
The study was published in the journal PLOS ONE, titled "Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change."
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