Satellites face greater chances of collision with space junk due to the reduced density in the upper atmosphere caused by the worsening climate change.
The new research, titled "A Realistic Projection of Climate Change in the Upper Atmosphere Into the 21st Century," published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by the British Antarctic Survey, reports that increased levels of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere will lead to a long-term decline in air density at high altitudes.
Worsening Climate Change Increases Lifespan of Space Junk Orbiting Earth, Preventing Efforts of Cleaning the Atmosphere
How Climate Change Affects Space Junk
Researchers wrote that the thinning of Earth's upper atmosphere has to do with the cooling caused by carbon dioxide, which goes against what it does closer to the planet's surface. NASA's Earth-observing satellites have previously measured this effect, which is caused by the sparse distribution of air molecules in the upper atmosphere compared to the layers closer to the surface.
Space.com reported that molecules in the lower atmosphere are packed tightly, which is why it traps heat that the greenhouse gas absorbs. But carbon dioxide molecules in the upper atmosphere are not that many to share the heat with, so it gets radiated away into outer space. If it emits heat, it cools down and shrinks, so space objects suddenly have a smoother ride and extend their orbital lifetime.
NERC independent research fellow Ingrid Cnossen from the British Antarctic Survey used a global model of the atmosphere up to 500-kilometer altitude to simulate how the upper atmosphere will change up to 2070.
She also compared her projections from the past 50 years of data and found that average cooling and upper atmosphere density will be twice as strong as in the past due to carbon dioxide emissions. Cnossen said it is important to understand how climate change will impact these regions for the space industry and the policymakers involved in setting standards for that industry.
Is This the Start of Unstoppable Collisions Between Satellites and Space Junk?
Space debris is becoming a rapidly growing problem that increases the risk of collision with satellites and spacecraft. Some experts think this might be the beginning of the Kessler Syndrome, a phenomenon of an unstoppable cascade of collisions that could render the low-Earth orbit unusable.
Space agencies and private companies have been looking for ways to address the problem of space debris. But now, it seems that climate change is another factor to overcome to solve this problem.
Experts have expressed their concerns that the reduced drag could worsen the problem of space debris that has caused worry in the space community for many years. ESA said there are over 30,000 trackable debris in low Earth orbit larger than 10cm and 1 million space debris objects greater than 1 cm.
According to Phys.org, the increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and Earth's magnetic field changes are expected to change the ionosphere or the charged part of the upper atmosphere. Understanding how ionosphere electrons work is important to correct errors introduced to satellite-based sea level measurements that monitor Earth's climate.
The team recommends further studies to monitor the possible changes and develop a picture to know how to control its effects on making satellites.
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