On February 11, 2015, SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket for its first interplanetary mission. The rocket's second stage was able to complete a long burn to reach a transfer orbit where the Deep Space Climate Observatory of NOAA began its journey to a Sun-Earth LaGrange point that is over 620,000 miles (1 million kilometers) away from Earth.
However, Falcon 9's second stage traveled so high and did not have enough energy to propel itself back to Earth's atmosphere. On the other hand, it cannot escape the gravity of Earth and Moon, so it has been following a chaotic orbit through space since then.
In this SpaceX handout image, a Falcon 9 rocket carrying the company's Crew Dragon spacecraft launches on the Demo-2 mission to the International Space Station with NASA astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley onboard at Launch Complex 39A May 30, 2020, at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida.
When Will Falcon 9's Second Stage Hit the Moon?
Sky observers said Falcon 9's second stage is on its way to hitting the Moon and will likely impact its far side, near the equator on March 4. Bill Gray wrote earlier this month in the widely used Project Pluto software that amateur and professional astronomers should make observations on the second stage of the rocket since it is tumbling through a chaotic orbit in space.
ARS Technica reported that the data from the software, which tracks near-Earth objects, minor planets, and comets, is used to predict when the Falcon 9's second stage will likely impact the Moon. Although the prediction is not perfect because uncertainties remain regarding the precise trajectory of the tumbling object.
But Gray writes that these unpredictable effects are very small and will accumulate between now and March 4. He suggested further observations and investigations are needed to refine the precise time and location of the impact.
Will It Impact Other Moon Missions?
According to Space Explored, the likelihood that it will hit other Moon missions is very low because only a handful of missions orbit the Moon. The impact of Falcon 9's second stage will instead help NASA's missions like Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to study the effects of a lunar impact.
The American space agency had missions that used spent stages of rockets to impact the Moon in the past. Some of these missions are the S-IVB (Saturn V third stage) and Lunar Module's ascent stage in which seismometers recorded "moonquakes" caused by these impacts.
In the case of Falcon 9's second stage, NASA's LRO team said they would attempt to locate the source of moonquakes once they were created. They also noted that more observations will be needed to fine-tune the prediction of the time and location of the impact and that ground-based observations can hopefully be made.
NASA Slammed A Rocket Body to the Moon More Than 10 Years Ago
NASA slammed a piece of space junk to the Moon about 10 years ago, according to Space.com. On June 18, 2009, NASA's Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) missions were launched together onboard the United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.
The LRO sped to lunar orbit where the LCROSS remained attached to the upper stage of the rocket and went on to travel in a long, elliptical path around Earth that put it in an intentional course towards the path of hitting the lunar surface. This mission is to see if there was ice in the Moon's polar crater.
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