Scientists have warned that a crucial ocean system in regulating the climate of the Earth could be reaching a tipping point.
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
The AMOC is a massive ocean current system that circulates water in the Atlantic Ocean. It brings cool water to the south and warm water to the north.
The system's dynamics are believed to be crucial for the Northern Hemisphere's relative warmth. However, these dynamics are also thought to be vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Several studies have revealed that the AMOC could slow down due to climate change. However, how fast and when such changes would take place remains unclear.
The AMOC has also been distinguished as a tipping element within the climate system. This means that it could go through rapid and sudden changes after being exposed to the slowly growing climate force for years.
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How Climate Change Could Affect the AMOC
A new study, entitled "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course," looked into how climate change could affect the system and how this disruption could affect the rest of the world. The researchers from Utrecht University, who were behind the study, created a mathematical model of the system to do so.
According to the researchers' models, the collapse could drastically alter heat distribution all over the world. It may lead to severe and rapid cooling within the Northern Hemisphere and slight warming across the south. This cooling would be notably prominent in Europe.
The authors note that, in comparison with the present global mean surface temperature trend of roughly 0.2 degrees Celsius every ten years, there are no realistic adaptation methods that can deal with these fast temperature changes under the collapse of the AMOC.
Their models were also able to note observable changes in the dynamics of freshwater transport in the Atlantic Ocean roughly 25 years prior to reaching this tipping point. This could offer a possible early warning sign of the impending collapse of the system.
Professor and research fellow Jon Robson from the University of Reading and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, who did not participate in the study, explains that the study offers worrisome proof regarding the possible disruptive and abrupt changes that the North Atlantic region may face. Such a collapse could lead to great impacts on ecosystems and society through alterations in regional winds, rainfall, and temperatures.
While the warning may cause alarm, this does not mean that the collapse will take place soon. Andrew Watson, who is a Royal Society Research Professor and a professor from the University of Exeter, explains that, assuming the researchers are right, the route for this to happen would be long. There could also be time for things to change.
Watson also adds that models only serve as predictions and not reality, noting that the real system could be more or less vulnerable to collapse compared to what is suggested by the model. Nevertheless, the study is useful, as the collapse of the system is detailed to a certain degree and as the researchers suggest practical observations that can be made that could help in predicting if a tipping point is near.
Jonathan Bamber, who is a professor from the University of Bristol and the Director of the Bristol Glaciology Center, notes that the model makes use of climate scenarios that are quite extreme.
Tim Lenton, a professor from the University of Exeter and the director of the Global Systems Institute, explains that what the study does not and cannot say is how close this tipping point is. Data is not sufficient to come up with reliable estimates of such.
Regardless of when this could happen, the study offers crucial insight regarding the climate systems of the planet and how they could alter in the future.
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