Defence: Europe's Industries Gradually Adapting to Mass Warfare

New munitions factories are popping up all over Europe, including the Rheinmetall's largest European plant at Ünterluss. Mostly focused on 155 mm shell production for Ukraine, these plants represent the physical evolution of Europe's new strategic approach to defence. As anxiety about Europe's ability to defend itself against Russia's strategic ambitions, the European "war economy" is enjoying a new lease of life.

Poland's announcement back in the spring that it planned to increase its 155 mm shell production fivefold was indicative of the wider European trend to come. According to a December 2023 Estonian Defense Ministry report, the entire European Union's 155 mm shell capacity was around 600,000 shells per year. Internal estimates from Rheinmetall at the same time also placed aggregate Western European capacity at about550,000 shells annually, far below required levels. By January 2024, the European Commission and EU institutions claimed capacity had hit 1 million shells per year.

Investment in defensive capabilities has therefore soared in Europe, driven by political pressure and geopolitical concern, but also by battlefield necessity. Artillery is back with a bang in Europe. The 155 mm shell, once considered almost mundane, has become a symbol of urgency. With Ukraine's armies burning through stocks, new factories for heavy munitions sprout across the continent.

In Lithuania, Rheinmetall is building another plant to produce 155 mm rounds set to open in 2027; in Estonia, the government has approved an explosives facility to supply RDX for regional ammunition manufacturing. In the Baltic States, where supply chains are constrained, these investments are now viewed as strategic necessities. This rush for production capacity is emblematic of Europe's predicament: after decades of lean defence postures, the continent's industrial base is scrambling to retool, scale, and mobilise. As French President Emmanuel Macron put it back in April 2024: "We must produce more, we must produce faster, and we must produce as Europeans." The logic is stark: in a war of attrition, quantity becomes a quality.

Europe's Long Road Back

Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in 2022 caught European powers off guard. Deep inventory holes were highlighted across land, sea, and air domains, supply chains proved to be fragile, and production lines of rare materials and electronics were shown to be stretched. The political reaction was immediate. In June 2022, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, declared that "For the first time in our history, the European Union is providing military aid to a country under attack. We are mobilizing our full economic power."

Former French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has been one of the main voices behind the call for an "économie de guerre." Speaking before France's National Assembly's Defence Committee on 3 October 2023, during hearings on the 2024 defence budget, he emphasised the need to accelerate production and strengthen the resilience of the industrial base, particularly in munitions and maintenance, as part of the Loi de programmation militaire 2024–2030.

In parallel, defence firms across Europe began investing ahead of guaranteed demand. In Germany, Rheinmetall has been developing facilities in order to boost munitions capacity in Hungary, Lithuania, and Romania. In several EU states, a "historic scale of rearmament" is being observed, with Europe shifting from peacetime "just-in-time" manufacturing to building an industrial base suited for a prolonged wartime posture. According to William Alberque, a former NATO arms control director, "This is a deep and structural change that will transform the defense industry in the medium to long term."

Industrial Mobilisation

This industrial evolution has been felt across defence industries, for land, sea, and air. European defence companies have increasingly tapped their own capital and reserves to pre-invest in capacity, betting ahead of orders to meet urgent demand. For example, Germany's GDELS (General Dynamics European Land Systems) has announced a significant expansion of armoured vehicle production in its German facilities, aiming to manufacture up to 500 Piranha wheeled armoured vehicles and 500 Eagle V protected vehicles per year.

The UK is making similar bets. London's orders and co-investment with BAE Systems are designed to deliver an expansion in domestic 155 mm capacity (such as Archer and AS90), with new lines stood up at Glascoed (Wales) and Washington (Tyne and Wear). Further upstream, the country has also moved to re-shore munitions and energetics: the government announced a £1.5 billion plan to build at least six new weapons and explosives factories to boost domestic production and stockpiles. As Prime Minister Keir Starmer put it when setting out the policy: "We are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, so we must be ready to fight and win."

Sweden, for example, has shifted its defence industry onto a genuine wartime footing. Saab AB, long a cornerstone of Nordic missile and radar innovation, has expanded production of its RBS-15 anti-ship missiles and NLAW anti-tank systems to meet surging European and Ukrainian demand. The company opened new assembly lines in Karlskoga and reorganised its supplier network to cut lead times and triple output by 2025. Sweden's Defense Minister Pal Jonson urged European nations in September to abandon their "peacetime mindset" and adopt "wartime readiness." The move cements Stockholm's role as a key northern node in Europe's emerging missile-production map, which is defined by interoperability, rapid replenishment, and trans-Atlantic integration.

Missiles Matter

In Europe, MBDA, a company born out of a collaboration between Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo's missile activities, has become one of the clearest gauges of wartime industrial acceleration through its missile production development and is emblematic of the European missile production sector. On 23 July 2025, the firm delivered the first batch of accelerated Aster missiles and said it would halve production lead times by 2026 while producing five times more missiles in 2025 than initially planned. CEO Éric Béranger explained that the milestone "demonstrates our commitment to working alongside our customers to ensure the ramp-up of our industrial facilities and the strengthening of our defence industrial and technological base," crediting factory modernisation and closer coordination with suppliers across Europe. The company has pledged €2.4 billion in additional capital expenditure between 2025 and 2029 to sustain the ramp-up.

In parallel, the SAMP/T air-defence family, produced by Eurosam, the joint venture of MBDA and Thales, is consolidating its role as Europe's alternative to the US Patriot system. In September 2025, Denmark chose the SAMP/T NG for its national air-defence programme. As Reuters reported, Copenhagen prioritised delivery speed and European supply chains over the crowded US production line in a climate of political upheaval due to the Trump administration's cavalier attitude to international geopolitics. Moreover, MBDA is developing medium-range "mass" effectors, highlighting its ambition of producing up to 1,000 units per month under discussion and a possible partnership with a major automotive manufacturer. This development is part of the precision strike segment and is designed to complement the high-end cruise missile systems currently under development, such as the British, French, and Italian Stratus programme.

These widespread efforts by the private sector come at a cost that cannot be sustained without long-term public orders. Europe has multiplied initiatives to facilitate defence investment, but it is time for the promised budget increases (towards 5% of GDP, per NATO guidelines) to materialise in the form of real contracts. This remains a challenge (although necessary) for countries like France and the UK, which proclaim ambitions for European defence but have yet to translate them fully into acquisition programmes.