Nature works in rhythms and rules. It has established its own design in the world and in a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters, it seems, nature does not like mixed landscapes. In this study, researchers from the University of Cincinnati were able to identify a 'tipping point' for deforestation that leads to the rapid loss of the forests.
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To be able to come up with the data needed, Professor Tomasz Stepinski used hi-res satellite images captured by the European Space Agency in order for the team to analyze landscapes within 9-kilometer blocks across the planet. The team analyzed the images captured from 1992 to 2015 and discovered the in these 9-kilometer-wide blocks, deforestation occurs slowly until half of the forest is gone. Once the forest cover halved, the remaining forest declined faster.
WHY DOES NATURE ABHORS MIXED LANDSCAPES?
According to the discoveries of Stepinski and lead author Jakub Nowosad, mixed landscapes -- like agricultural lands and forests, for instance -- are few and do not stay mixed. They tend to get homogenous given a period of time without being affected by the type of landscape they are in. Stepinski explained it was once a natural process and that it corresponds to different climatic zones. He also explained that landscapes are naturally changing whether or not it is caused by natural phenomena or triggered by human activity. However, human activity brings faster changes since the effects are both direct (in cases of clear-cutting) and indirect (climate change).
Back in 2019, Stepinski used similar data obtained from the European Space Agency to show that 22% of Earth's habitable surface has changed greatly since 1992 to 2015 and the biggest factor to this change is the conversion of forested lands to agriculture. In this new project, Stepinski and his team examined 1.8 million blocks within the seven continents and categorized these blocks in 64 landscape combinations.
The researchers were able to observe transitions of the landscapes between 1992 and 2015 from predominantly one type to another amongst the 15% of these blocks. 23 years is a relatively short period of time according to Stepinski. "But from that data, we can calculate the change in the future."
DEFORESTATION AS THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE
It seems nowadays it's common to find changes in nature that occurred due to human activity and these changes in the landscape are no different. The recent study applied the Monte Carlo probability model to determine the likelihood of different types of landscape change in a period of time. The results show that Earth is designed to be homogenous. Stepinski explains, "planet Earth wants to be homogenous. The land wants to be the same in all these patches and when they start to change, they don't stop until everything is back to being a homogenous block."
The researchers do not have the answer as to why landscape blocks can change easily once the transition begins. However, Stepinski theorized that it can be primarily due to humans' resources when cutting down trees or that the forest becomes vulnerable to change when a disturbance starts to happen.
