According to a survey done by the VACCELERATE Consortium, influenza viruses are the top among pathogens that are ranked with regards to pandemic potential. This means that they have the highest perceived potential of triggering another pandemic.
Pathogens With Pandemic Potential
The study covered 187 infectious disease experts across 57 countries. It showed a consensus shared by participants, as 57% of them ranked influenza to be the top threat. There were also 17% who ranked influenza as second.
Findings were noted in the "Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics."
Other pathogens with a high ranking included Disease X as well as viruses that are responsible for Ebola, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2. There were 21% of participants who ranked Disease X as number one, while 14% of them ranked it second.
When it comes to lowest perceived pandemic potential, viruses such as Nipah, Lassa, Hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, and henipavirus were included.
As part of the study, the experts got to rank 14 pathogens in order of pandemic potential or perceived risk. Based on the position of the pathogen, each one was given a score.
The VACCELERATE Consortium behind the survey is a pan-European clinical research network that coordinates to speed up the upcoming and existing development programs for novel vaccination strategies and vaccines.
Findings will be presented by Dr. Jon Salamanton-Garcia, the lead author of the study, during the Global Congress of the ESCMID (European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases).
Moreover, a Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics has been outlined by the World Health Organization. This targets infectious diseases that pose a grave threat to the public. The diseases were chosen following intricate evaluation, wherein factors such as infectivity, transmission, evolution potential, and severity were considered.
The Risks of Influenza Viruses
Dr. Salamanton-Garcia says that an influenza season is present each winter. One may even say that little pandemics happen every winter. However, these are quite controlled due to how these various strains are not sufficiently virulent.
However, every season, the involved strains change. This is why one may get influenza several times across life and why vaccines are different year to year. If a new strain ends up becoming more virulent, control could end up lost.
The study concluded that among ranked pathogens, influenza, disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, and Ebola virus are the most worrisome. The study considered their potential to trigger a pandemic.
Though the influenza pandemic has a looming threat, Dr. Salmanton-Garcia says that the world is more prepared due to the experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The doctor shares that during the COVID-19 pandemic, several things pertaining to approaching a respiratory virus pandemic were learned. These include hand sanitation, social distancing, face masks, vaccination focus, and healthcare trust.
Institutions were also able to learn a lot. Now, surveillance and preparedness have become better-funded.
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