This year's hurricane season in the Atlantic basin begins in less than two months, and pre-season predictions predict that it will be busy.
Above-Average Hurricane Season
Researchers at North Carolina State University have forecasted that this year's hurricane season will bring 15 to 20 named storms to the Atlantic region. Between 1951 and 2023, the long-term average for named storms was 14, while the more recent average, calculated between 1994 and 2023, was 14.
NC State professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences Lian Xie led the study. The research findings were obtained after assessing more than 100 years of Atlantic Ocean hurricane data based on positions and intensity, surrounding weather patterns, and sea-surface temperatures.
Generally, the research team forecasted that of the predicted storms, 10 to 12 may become hurricanes, with three to four potentially becoming significant events. The Gulf of Mexico is assumed to see more active hurricanes this year, with five to seven named storms to form out of the 15 to 20 storms forecasted. Out of these, two to four can become hurricanes, with one or two becoming major ones.
Meanwhile, meteorologists at Colorado State University also predicted an "extremely active" hurricane season this year. They forecasted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five significant hurricanes set to occur this year.
According to Xie, this trend is concerning. The researchers need to find out the causes behind it and whether such change is long-term and irreversible. They are also less concerned about natural cycles, as it is particularly important to know the impact of human activities on such increasing trends.
Whether this trend continues remains to be seen since longer and more reliable data sets are required to validate long-term changes. For instance, most preseason hurricane forecast teams predicted below- or near-normal activity for the Atlantic basin last year. However, the hurricane activity in the region turned out to be above normal.
Effects of Changing Weather Patterns
The hurricane season across the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea, typically occurs from June 1 through November 30.
For years, experts have known that extreme weather events like hurricanes are increasing all over the Earth, largely due to climate change. Last year, 20 storms visited the Atlantic basin, seven of which turned into hurricanes. Since the mid-1990s, the North Atlantic has experienced an active period of multi-decadal variations of tropical cyclone activities. On top of these variations, Xie noted that there appears to be a smaller but increasing trend in past decades.
Scientists warn that weather events can have remarkable effects on local people. Previous research has found that the huge waves produced during hurricanes have been increasing. Paired with a high number of storms, the increase in wave height can pose a serious threat to North America and the Caribbean. Large waves can also present a threat to life, damage buildings, cause erosion, and lead to severe flooding.
As climate change continues to worsen, weather patterns are expected to become more unpredictable. In the U.S., many areas are experiencing whiplash seasons, with extreme periods of drought followed by extreme periods of rain.
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