Fading Winter Wonderland: Climate Change Threatens to Strip 13% of Ski Resorts of Snow Cover by Century's End

Climate change threatens to render numerous beloved ski destinations impractical by the century's close. As per the study, titled "Global reduction of snow cover in ski areas under climate change" published in PLoS ONE, approximately 13% of global ski areas, representing about one in eight, are projected to lose their natural snow cover by 2100 as carbon dioxide emissions double.

This not only impacts enthusiasts who frequent these slopes but also poses economic challenges for communities reliant on ski tourism. Additionally, it poses ecological risks to alpine and mountain ecosystems.

Climate Change's Threat to Skiing Regions Worldwide

The study projects variations in snow cover days across major skiing regions under different emissions scenarios, spanning from 2011-2040 to 2071-2100.

In the high emissions scenario, the authors anticipate a significant loss, with 13% of current ski areas expected to lose all natural annual snow cover by 2071-2100, and one-fifth facing over a 50% reduction.

Moreover, globally, 20% of skiing areas are predicted to experience more than a 50% decrease in snow cover days by 2071-2100 compared to historical records, with Australia facing the most substantial decline, losing over three-quarters of snow cover days.

Lead researcher Veronika Mitterwallner from the University of Bayreuth notes these findings align with current observations, with ski resorts shutting down due to insufficient snow, and winter sports occurring on dwindling snow patches amid green landscapes.

Modeling three emissions scenarios-low, medium, and high-across the century, the study predicts significant decreases in annual snow cover days across seven major mountain regions hosting downhill skiing, under all scenarios.

For instance, under the medium-emissions scenario, the study anticipates declines ranging from 23% in the Rocky Mountains to 78% in the Australian Alps by the end of the century, relative to historical periods. Notably, China's data was unavailable for modeling.

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Ski Resorts Near Populated Areas Face Greater Climate Impact

Alpine warming, driven by climate change, aligns with forecasts of vanishing glaciers and potential economic challenges for resorts lacking adequate snow cover. Projections indicate significant reductions in snow days, particularly in regions like the Australian Alps and the Japanese Alps, possibly rendering them nonviable by 2100.

Mitterwallner highlights the compounding effects of shifting snow cover patterns on skiing accessibility, emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change impacts.

Furthermore, proximity to densely populated areas exacerbates the climate change impact, with significant reductions in snow cover days projected for highly populated regions, particularly under very high emissions scenarios. Mitterwallner emphasizes the vulnerability of ski areas situated closer to population centers, cautioning against the impending impacts of climate change.

Conversely, remote regions, such as those located south of the European Alps, may experience relatively lesser effects from climate change.

The researchers caution that the relocation of ski fields to remote areas could exacerbate pressures on vulnerable mountain ecosystems, particularly affecting high-altitude species already stressed by climate change.

The slow recovery of alpine plants from disturbances and potential mismatches in plant blooming and herbivore activity due to ski area expansion further underscore the need for biodiversity conservation amid climate change. Conflicts between nature conservation and skiing activities are expected to escalate with ongoing climate change.

Janette Lindesay from the Australian National University confirms the realism of the scenarios, noting ongoing environmental warming will likely continue to diminish snowfall conditions globally.

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